2020 Hurricane Season to be Above Average for 5th straight year
While Our globe and most certainly the Eastern States and Atlantic Canada deal with currently a growing pandemic of Covid-19, Another threat horizons that will arrive in 2 months.
The start of hurricane season 2020, Officially arrives June 1st roughly 2 months from now and all signs point to another very active and dangerous Hurricane season.
Wx Centre Atlantic Canada Meteorologist James Follett is predicting 14 to 20 named storms, out of which, 4-8 Would be Hurricanes, 2-4, being Major Hurricanes of Category 3 or Higher and 8 Named Tropical Storms.
Last year, the 2019 Hurricane season had 18 named storms, of which 6 where Hurricanes and 3 were Major Hurricanes of Category 3 or Higher, including Hurricane Dorian which was a Category 5 in the Bahamas and slammed Southern Nova Scotia very hard as a Category 2 Extra-Tropical Hurricane.
The reason for another active hurricane season is based on many indications, one is El Nino.
El Nino is now no longer here, El Nino tends to bring less hurricanes due to higher wind shear which is not expected this year, all signs are that this hurricane season there will be little to no wind shear present.
Warm waters is another contribute to the active hurricane forecast, Waters over the north Atlantic are running above average and expected to continue to warm through the summer, meanwhile water temperatures over the Bahamas and Caribbean are already far above the normal since February and is already warm enough for Early Storm activity, water temperatures in the Bahamas and Caribbean is running at 80 degrees Fahrenheit or 26 degrees Celsius.
Along with low wind shear, warm waters and no El-Nino is the lack of African Dust or "Dry Air" Dust and Dry air is a big killer for Hurricanes because shred them apart, Hurricanes need Large Thunderstorms and Moisture. Dry air and African Dust disrupts clouds and breaks them apart weakens development. With the lack of Dry air and African Dust, and more moisture the Hurricanes have a better chance of forming.
Active jet stream & Large Bermuda High is also key to an active hurricane season, but also a dangerous track! these two combined can form storms near the Caribbean or Bahamas and send them tracking up the East Coast. A jet stream pattern far south like it has been and a Bermuda high sends warm tropical, moist & Humid air to the Bahamas, Caribbean and South Coast which is a good ingredient to start tropical development.
Atlantic Canada should begin preparing a storm kit and drills now, so they are prepared for Hurricane season in 2 months. after Hurricane Dorian, and Juan It is best to always be prepared, it only takes 1 storm to do damage and cause large power Outages.
Back in 1963, Hurricane Ginny made landfall in Yarmouth, Nova Scotia as a powerful Category 2 with winds of 110 mph just 1mph shy of being a major Category 3 Hurricane on the 29th of October, 2 days before Halloween.
As of now, there are 2 seasons that look very similar to this pattern, 1980 and 2005. in 1980 there were only 11 named storms and in 2005 that was a record smashing year for tropical Development, 28 named storms formed the most ever, with over 7 major Category 3 Hurricanes including Wilma, Emily & Katrina. There were a record 15 hurricanes and a record 31 tropical Depressions.
It looks very possible that this could be a year very similar to 2005, The first named storm of the season will be Arthur. A name that Southern Nova Scotia do not want to come around there neck of the woods again, 6 years ago Arthur made landfall near Digby Neck as a very strong Extra-Tropical Storm.