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  • Writer's pictureKyle Sooley-Brookings

El Niño conditions are expected to develop from May to July


Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are expecting El Niño conditions to develop from May to July 2023.


There is a El Niño Watch in effect. An El Niño Watch is issued when conditions are favourable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next six months.


Over the past month sea surface temperatures along the coast of the western and far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have been above normal.


The Niño 1+2 index value was +2.7°C, indicating significant warming along the South American coast.


Over the last month, area-averaged subsurface temperatures also increased.


El Niño conditions exist when a one-month positive sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5°C or greater is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with El Niño is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.



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