High

Very reliable forecast with strong agreement between models and data.
Only minor adjustments, if any, are expected as conditions evolve.
What it means: You can plan with confidence—the forecast is unlikely to change.

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Medium

Generally reliable, but some uncertainty remains in timing, intensity, or type of precipitation.
Forecast details may shift as new data becomes available.
What it means: Stay updated—small changes could affect your plans.

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Low

Low confidence due to significant uncertainty in the forecast setup.
Key details such as timing, track, or precipitation type may change.
What it means: Check back often—forecast could change significantly.