Tropical Storm Vance tracks north toward Mexico

Tropical Storm Vance is maintaining a northward track over the eastern Pacific, with heavy rainfall and dangerous surf expected along parts of western Mexico.

In its 2 a.m. MDT advisory Wednesday, Oct. 28, the U.S. National Hurricane Center places Vance about 455 kilometres west of Manzanillo and 365 kilometres southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The storm has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and is moving north at 19 km/h. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later Wednesday.

Little change in strength is forecast over the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday as it approaches northwestern Mexico.

Heavy rainfall and flooding risk

Vance is forecast to produce 50 to 100 millimetres of rain through Thursday across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango and northwestern Nayarit. Isolated totals of up to 175 millimetres are possible across central and southern Sinaloa.

The rainfall could trigger flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas with steep terrain.

Swells generated by the storm are also expected to affect parts of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern Baja California Peninsula, over the next few days. These conditions could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect. The National Hurricane Center advises people along the affected coastlines to monitor Vance's progress.