• Kyle Brookings

70% Chance of Tropical Development in the Atlantic


It appears increasingly likely that a subtropical storm could develop over the weekend near the Bahamas.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop on Saturday near the Bahamas.


Environmental conditions will be conducive to the gradual development of this system.

Once the low develops it is expected to move northeast.

The National Hurricane Center gives the low a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

Sea surface temperatures in the area are near 25 degrees. The ECMWF model also agrees with the analysis from the National Hurricane Center with the probability of tropical cyclone formation.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and runs to November 30. The first named storm of the year will be Arthur.


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