How Rare is it for A Tropical Cyclone to Form in the Off-Season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30 but tropical cyclones can appear almost anytime.
Right now there is a trough of low pressure that extends from South Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system.
The formation chance through 48 hours and the next 5 days is low at 10 percent.
But how rare is it for a hurricane to form outside of season? On average three percent of hurricane activity happens outside of the June 1 through November 30 range.
In 2016 Hurricane Alex became the first hurricane to appear in the Atlantic basin in January since 1938.
Back in April 2017 the National Hurricane Center was issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene, the first named storm for that year. In April of 2003 Ana formed.