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Milton barrels toward Florida

Writer's picture: Jessica FranklinJessica Franklin

This morning Hurricane Milton is a category five hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h as it spins about 255 kilometres west of the Dry Tortugas.


Milton is expected to make landfall later tonight as a dangerous major hurricane which has prompted thousands to evacuate. There are hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings in effect.


Model guidance indicates that Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.

Normally dry areas near the coast will be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

  • Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL 10-15 ft

  • Tampa Bay 10-15 ft

  • Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL 9-13 ft

  • Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL 8-12 ft

  • Charlotte Harbor 8-12 ft

  • Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL 5-8 ft

  • Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL 4-7 ft

  • Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL 3-5 ft

  • Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA 3-5 ft

  • Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC 2-4 ft

  • Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL 2-4 ft

  • Dry Tortugas 2-4 ft

  • St. Johns River 2-4 ft


Catastrophic rainfall amounts are expected that will bring life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches are possible.


Dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday.


Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.


Multiple tornadoes are likely today and tonight across portions of central and southern Florida.


Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

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